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☆ This semiconductor ETF is headed for its best quarterly gain in a year. Here are the winners
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-28 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Semiconductor stocks are off to another hot start to the year. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is up 28.5% in the first three months of 2024. That puts the SMH on pace for its biggest quarterly gain since the first quarter of 2023, when it jumped 30%. The stock is up more than 30% to start 2024. Shares have skyrocketed more than 39% to start 2024, helped by strong sales in high bandwidth memory necessary in AI infrastructure.

Persons: Ken Mahoney, Nvidia, Hendi, Management's Paul Meeks, Andrew Garthwaite cautioning Organizations: VanEck Semiconductor, Asset, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Apple, Devices, JPMorgan, PHLX Semiconductor, Intel, Micron Technology, Micron, UBS, Universal Locations: Taiwan

☆ Notable UBS strategist Garthwaite sees stocks ending 2024 flat as 'difficult phase' approaches
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-26 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Equity strategist Andrew Garthwaite warned investors could be in for a "difficult phase" and end the year flat. The S & P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reached record highs last week, with the former breaking above 5,100 for the first time on an intraday basis. The S & P 500 and Nasdaq are both up more than 6% this year, and the Dow has climbed 3.8%. Garthwaite admitted his downbeat outlook could be wrong, as productivity gains from AI could lead to a 15% to 20% advance for the S & P 500. Market breadth is also typically better when stocks reach new highs, according to Garthwaite.

Persons: Andrew Garthwaite, Dow, Garthwaite Organizations: UBS, Equity, PPI, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nvidia Locations: Japan

☆ U.S. market is too heavily reliant on pricey 'Magnificent Seven' stocks for gains, says Credit Suisse strategist
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"We struggle to believe that the US at currently [circa] 60% of global market cap can continue its inexorable rise." The Shiller P/E ratio is a measure of how undervalued or overvalued the broader stock market is. Garthwaite attributed the overvalued nature of the market to the meteoric rise of technology stocks this year, especially the so-called Magnificent Seven, which includes Alphabet , Amazon , Apple , Meta , Microsoft , Nvidia and Tesla . This means the U.S. market is essentially overexposed to these seven stocks, which are seeing "extreme levels" for relative valuations, he said, in a note to clients that advised investors to underweight U.S. stocks. While Credit Suisse is still bullish on technology stocks, current high price-to-earnings multiples for the Magnificent Seven will be difficult to maintain, he said.

Persons: Andrew Garthwaite, Garthwaite, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Credit Suisse, Tech Locations: U.S

That has made it tricky to predict consumer spending. The swirl of confusing trends tees up a closely watched retail earnings season that could offer more clarity about consumers and the economy. As inflation cools, the growth of average hourly earnings has begun to outpace the rise in the consumer price index. He called low unemployment "the big offset that's helped consumer spending hang in." "I thought with all of the revenge travel that's been happening, that would impact consumer spending on goods," she said.

Persons: Aditya Bhave, that's, Andrew Garthwaite, That's, Levi Strauss, Chip Bergh, Michael Baker, Davidson, splurge, Baker, Taylor Swift, Davidson's Baker, Nikki Baird, she's, I'm, Corie Barry, headboards Organizations: Getty, Bank of America, Target, Walmart, JPMorgan, Wall, Federal Reserve, Credit Suisse, U.S, of Labor Statistics, CNBC, . Bureau, Labor, D.A, New York Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Board Locations: Waterbury , Connecticut, U.S, Italy

☆ Credit Suisse's top market strategist says recession is still coming and stocks may have peaked
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. economy is still likely to fall into a recession and that will soon drag down stocks, according to Credit Suisse. The S & P 500 closed at its highest level of the year July 31, at 4,588.96. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 has slipped off its highs of the year in August. Some major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs , have recently reduced the odds of a recession, while Oppenheimer hiked its S & P 500 target to 4,900. Still, there are areas of concern that support Credit Suisse's recession case.

Persons: Andrew Garthwaite, Garthwaite, Garthwaite's, Goldman Sachs, Oppenheimer, Moody's, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Credit Suisse, Global Locations: U.S

☆ Japan is in a 'Goldilocks' position, Credit Suisse says. Here's how to play it
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Japanese economy appears to be on stable footing and its stock market should continue to climb, according to Credit Suisse. Read more: Japan stocks are on fire this year. Ways to play it The simplest way for U.S-based investors to add exposure to Japan is through exchange-traded funds. The biggest U.S. ETF that tracks Japan is the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) . When the yen falls versus the dollar, that can mute the returns of Japanese stocks for U.S. investors.

Persons: Andrew Garthwaite, Garthwaite, Read, BlackRock's iShares, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Credit Suisse, Global, U.S, JPMorgan BetaBuilders Japan, JPMorgan, Japan Hedged Equity Locations: Japan, U.S

☆ Markets next week may keep thinking about what could go right
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

At least that's the thinking of a small but growing chorus of voices on Wall Street who outline the case for further stock market gains after both the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite touched nine-month highs this past week. The VIX was trading around 16-17 late this week, signaling no great fear among professional traders. Walmart and other retailers this week highlighted consumers are spending less freely, but they're still spending , and that drives two thirds of the economy. Even Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote late this week that he has to entertain what could go right in markets, despite the fact his own view is fundamentally bearish. If that "upside scenario" happens, UBS sees global stocks moving 13% higher by the end of December, and the S & P 500 surging another 6% — to north of 4,400.

☆ Chip stocks posted their best quarter since 2020. What's next for the sector and why the rally may fade
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Chip stocks made a breathtaking comeback in the first quarter, but don't be surprised if the rally gives up some of its gains, investors warn. The semiconductor sector on Friday wrapped up its best quarter since 2020 as investors rotated back into the downtrodden industry, with names like Nvidia notching its best quarterly stretch since 2001. The recent tear in semiconductor stocks brings the sector into overbought territory versus non-financial cyclicals, said Credit Suisse's Andrew Garthwaite in a recent note. Like many investors, Niles views Nvidia as a dominant AI play despite its rich valuation . While the stock's given those gains, many investors viewed the print as a sign of a bottom.

☆ Credit Suisse thinks this is still just a bear market rally and gives the history to back it up
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Andrew Garthwaite, global equity strategist at Credit Suisse, believes this U.S. stock market comeback is still a bear market rally and not the start of a new bull market, despite its significant magnitude and achievement of a notable chart milestone. The S & P 500 is up 11% from its low close in October, including a 3% gain in 2023. History shows, Credit Suisse found, that bear market rallies of this size are not that unusual and some have traded above the 200-day average before falling back into a bear market again. "Bottom line: this is close to the average bear market rally but bear market rallies can be larger and longer," Garthwaite wrote in the report. Credit Suisse also cited bear market rallies on the Nasdaq and Japanese markets to back up its claim that this is just a bounce to be faded.

☆ Here's why 2023 could be another solid year for dividend stocks — and how to play it
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Dividend stocks proved valuable for investors in a turbulent 2022, and many investment professionals are sticking with the group for next year. The SPDR Portfolio S & P 500 High Dividend ETF (SPYD) was down just about 1% for the year on a total return basis, easily outpacing the broader market. And with consensus expectations pointing to high interest rates and slow or even negative economic growth in 2023, dividend stocks could have quite a while left in the spotlight. Many major shops on Wall Street are bullish on dividend stocks in one form or another heading into 2023. Credit Suisse's strategist Andrew Garthwaite said in a note to clients that he was overweight dividend aristocrats, or stocks that have a long track record of growing their payouts. To be sure, investing in dividend stocks can be tricky during economic downturns, as falling profits can lead to dividend cuts or even suspensions.

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